That’s a question that can’t be answered fully for a couple of years yet. But the peak oil theory enthusiasts are already claiming that shale oil is nothing more than a blip on the radar screen. Meanwhile, others are taking this view to task.

John Kemp, one of Reuters’ most senior commentators, takes pro-peak oil man Professor James Hamilton on in a recent article. Professor Hamilton had argued that $100 oil is here to stay, but John Kemp found holes in his thesis.

“If oil wells were not extremely profitable, North Dakota and Texas would not be experiencing a drilling boom, with demand for both rigs and petroleum engineers at the highest level for three decades, said John Kemp in a recent opinion piece.

It’s hard to know who is right, but one thing that John Kemp said is surely up for further examination. Mr Kemp has criticised Professor Hamilton’s assertion that most new oil discovered is of lower quality. Mr Kemp says this isn’t so.

To me, this seems part right and part wrong, and its the part that’s wrong that is important for the aluminium industry. it’s true that some crudes coming from Eagle Ford and other areas is light and sweet, and this is presenting something of a dilemma to Gulf Coast oil refineries that have geared themselves up for heavy sour oil.

But the biggest field is the Alberta tar sands area, which is producing a heavy sour crude. This crude delivers a discounted blend to the refinery and a better economic equation, and as more pipeline and rail capacity delivers more of this crude to refineries, that’s a bigger problem for aluminium producers. Canadian heavy sour crude produces a coke that is unsuitable for anode manufacture.

We will let the experts argue over who is right and who is wrong. Right now we need to see more anode coke available in the longer term, but that desire is under threat from the vast quantities of heavy sour crude oil from Canada.