Black China Blog

• Casting the net wider May 20, 2015
  Those of you on the carbon and petcoke side of things know that we have been warning for some time that anode quality petcoke is becoming increasingly scarce. We will have more to say on this in the next week or so, but consider this small anecdote. China is casting its net wider in […]
  Paul Adkins
• PacAl part II – one thing that won’t happen May 19, 2015
  We discussed in the previous post that Rio Tinto has put its Pacific Aluminium asset up for sale, with a reported price tag around US$1 billion. Here’s one thing that won’t happen. Given the history of 9 months ago, one thing that won’t happen is for Ivan Glasenberg to pick up the phone and […]
  Paul Adkins
• Rio to put PacAl up for sale again May 18, 2015
  The Financial Times has reported that Rio Tinto is putting its Pacific Aluminium asset up for sale – again. Rio first tried to sell the business in 2011, but canned the idea in 2013, when nobody came anywhere near the price tag on the assets at that time. Rio’s view, according to the Financial […]
  Paul Adkins
• The next step – Banks to lend to dead projects May 18, 2015
  The Financial Times has reported that the Chinese government has ordered its banks to prop up insolvent local government projects. The directive, which came jointly from the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China and the Banking Regulator and was published by the State Council, orders banks to keep lending to local government projects, […]
  Paul Adkins
• Timing is everything May 13, 2015
  Politicians must hate the idea of their words being recorded. The Business Spectator magazine today quoted Australian Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey as saying “I’m not as bearish as many others about China. Why? Because China must grow”. His words today came at the same time that China published its latest set of economic data points. China’s […]
  Paul Adkins
• Shanghai aluminium price v. inventory – magic? May 13, 2015
  This chart is from one of AZ China’s regular weekly reports. It is pretty clear what this chart is reporting – for the last month, Shanghai aluminium prices have been rising even as metal inventory is also rising. Further, the same trend has been evident through all […]
  Paul Adkins
• Alcan shrinking May 12, 2015
  There are reports this morning that Rio Tinto Alcan is to shed up to 170 jobs in Montreal, while the Alcan part of the name will gradually disappear. The jobs will go between now and the end of the year, with the cuts said to be part of the company’s streamlining and cost-cutting efforts. The Alcan […]
  Paul Adkins
• Chinese coke market quiz – answers May 11, 2015
  Thanks to those of you who had a go at the quiz we ran last week. Here are the answers: Shandong province is home to a lot of oil refineries that produce anode grade coke. But how much anode grade petcoke was produced in Shandong province in 2014? The correct answer was C – […]
  Paul Adkins
• Another interest rate cut – more to come May 11, 2015
  The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) yesterday announced another interest rate cut. The central bank has shaved another 25 basis points off the 1-year lending rate, as well as reducing the maximum deposit rate by the same amount. The narrative put forward by the bank is that this move is to help shore up the […]
  Paul Adkins
• Colliding universes – be careful what you wish for May 7, 2015
  It seems hard to believe that less than 24 months ago, Alcoa President Klaus Kleinfeld was complaining that China’s aluminium smelter sector is “living on a different universe.” Back then, he was right. China seemed to be operating independently of the rest of the world. While companies such as Alcoa and Rusal were making the […]
  Paul Adkins