Kazakhstan has only one aluminium smelter (KAS) which is owned by the Kazakhstan government and is located in Pavlodar. With annual production capacity of 250kt, KAS needs 125kt of anode theoretically. According to our database, they run at relative higher operating rate, over 95% in latest 3 years, therefore the consumption of anode was quite stable among these years. However, they sourced baked anode from China and Russia, which increased their production cost as well as the business risk of raw material supply.

Kazakhstan has delayed cokers with existing anode grade petroleum coke capacity of 370ktpa in total, which is able to satisfy carbon products’ consumption for domestic aluminium smelter. After 2 years construction, a captive anode plant was put on stream by 2013 end, with reported capacity of 150ktpa. Compared to their aluminium outputs in 2013 of 244kt, it is enough. At same time, UPNK-PV together with China NFC worked on a calcined coke project with capacity of 280ktpa in Pavlodar from the middle of 2013. It expected to start operation in the second half of 2014. They are steadily becoming self-reliant on carbon supply.

China as the principle supplier of anode and calcined coke to Kazakhstan reduced exports from the beginning of this year. During the first quarter, anode exports to Kazakhstan reduced more than a half compared with Q1 2013 to 29kt. Kazakhstan will import less and less anodes.

Although Kazakhstan has a plan to expand aluminium capacity with another 250ktpa, which may give China producers another opportunity to export, I don’t think it will happen in next few years.

(All information is available in our SPH Report for more detailed country analysis. )