The topics and panelists

Shale oil/tight oil

In the last 4 years, the USA has dramatically increased its output of domestic crude oil, thanks to the development of new technology to extract oil from geological rock formations such as shale rock.

Tight oil, of which Shale oil is one type, is now reaching 1 million barrels per day, and is forecast to double output. American oil refineries, especially those that produce anode grade petcoke, are now trying to figure out what to do about the rising influence of tight oil. Tight oil can deliver huge savings to a refinery, but the impact on each refinery’s petcoke production can be highly variable. Refineries that switch to Canadian Heavy oil will produce substantially more fuel coke, but those who switch to Eagle Ford or Bakken will produce a lot less coke. Some estimates predict that anode grade coke production call fall by more than half.

What is the full story on the shale oil phenomenon? What is the impact on green coke production, now and in the foreseeable future? How are calciners reacting now, and what additional challenges are ahead of them?

To examine these questions, we will be joined by:

Stuart Ehrenreich, Managing Director, Cascade Resources

Keith Neyrey, Customer Support Manager, Rain CII

China Petcoke

In this session we will examine the new/old phenomenon of hydro treating the vacuum materials in Chinese oil refineries, and what this will do to the supply of green coke.

Sinopec have reportedly started experimenting with the use of hydro treating in a couple of its refineries. Although the technology is not new, its application in today’s environment represents a threat to coke output. Some have reported that Sinopec’s experiments have led to a petcoke output reduction of up to 30%.

We will learn what the other major petcoke producers are doing to improve their value products output, recognizing that increased light product output means decreased coke output. What is CNPC doing?

On a broader scale, we will look at China’s total petcoke supply picture. 2012 saw no growth in petcoke supply – what is the outlook for 2013, and 2014?

What is happening with imports and exports, and what about the talk of new Customs Tariffs on petcoke?

With the changes to the total supply side in China, what does this mean for availability for export? To what extent is China dipping into medium-high sulphur cokes to support its anode demand?

To examine these questions, we will be joined by:

Ji Yuan, Analyst at AZ China, and author of the monthly Black China Report

Wang Hao, Senior Engineer and Vice Director, Petrochina (TBC)

Calcined Coke

Anyone involved in the global calcined coke/anode business will be aware that calcining capacity has grown strongly in recent years. New projects in China have recently opened, while others in China, India, and the Middle East are in various stages of development.

This growth comes at a time when primary aluminium production is under pressure from low prices and lack of profitability. Outside China, the outlook is grim, with closures likely to exceed expansions for the next couple of years.

Meantime, inside China, new anode plants and new smelters are adding to the total demand, but from within China. What will that do to availability for the rest of the world? Will China’s domestic demand for anode grade coke, combined with lack of growth of this coke, cause shortages of coke? What does that do to the calciners that have recently been built or are due to enter the market?

Out of all this, where are prices heading? If petcoke prices rise, won’t that put a squeeze on calciners, especially as smelters are less willing than ever to pay more.

Finally, what does the panel think will happen with anode plant development? Is there any threat to the traditional model that sees each smelter having its own anode plant? What about tightening environmental regulations, and the decreasing availability of capital for furnace rebuilds? Will we soon see the day when global anode producers, perhaps based in China or elsewhere, are supplying multiple plants with their anodes from one massive ultra-modern anode plant?

To help us understand these questions, we will be joined by:

Mr Tony Botelho, Sales Manager, Sinoway Carbon, China

Dr Akram Madanat, formerly of Gasan Calcining Project, Saudi Arabia

Open Forum

In the first 3 topic areas, we have tried to address the major issues facing the petcoke industry right now. But that doesn’t mean there are no other topics to be examined. Some of these include:

• Fuel grade coke prices – will coal price drive fuel coke prices down?
• What of the talk that high sulphur coke imports will be taxed in China?
• What is happening in India? Will that country grow CPC exports?
• What is the price gap between CPC at 3% sulphur compared to lower levels of sulphur?
• How to obtain the best prices for CPC, and what about the new CPC Index services popping up?

To help us with this discussion, our panelists from the previous 3 sessions will be joined by Paul Adkins, Managing Director of AZ China and Oscar Mascarenhas of Goa Petcoke Consulting.

To register for this conference, go to the forum website and use the online registration page at https://petcokeconference.az-china.com/ (The registration page will be open on or before October 23.)