Reading the political tea leaves

Written by Paul Adkins

Several people have commented to us about the current corruption investigation into 4 executives from CNPC PetroChina, and what it really means.

My reading of these investigations sees a deeper agenda at work.

We need to look at who is the most senior person being targeted by the investigations, the person who is targeted by the very fact that he is not being investigated - yet. Mr Zhou Yongkang was once head of CNPC before moving into the important role of head of national security. It has been Mr Zhou who has led the huge expenditure into the Public Security Bureau and other measures of social control. More importantly, Mr Zhou aligned himself with Bo Xilai, the now disgraced charismatic Governor of Chongqing.

Why is that important? As John Garnaut explains in his book, “The Rise and Fall of the House of Bo”, Bo Xilai’s father was an enemy of Xi Jinping’s father, back in the days of Chairman Mao. That enmity has continued through to the sons, the difference being that one son is now President of the country, while the other is awaiting the verdict on his trial for corruption, and is almost certain to be found guilty.

In a classic case of “my enemy’s friend is my enemy”, it’s my belief that Zhou finds he has an enemy in Mr Xi. But before Mr Xi strikes, first strip away his places to hide. Jiang Jemin, the most recent head of CNPC, who was promoted to head up SASAC, is now under scrutiny, as are 3 of his former colleagues at CNPC. These 3 are collateral damage in a bigger war.

It suits Mr Xi to have Mr Jiang investigated in any case, as he is the voice of the SOE interest group within the upper echelons of the Communist Party. The SOE’s do not want to see any change to the current focus on infrastructure and exports. SOE’s, like multinational corporations around the world, want the government to make it easier for them to do business and make profits, so programs which focus on reform of the the financial and corporate systems and controls are to be fought against, in their eyes. SASAC, as head of the SOE’s in China, represents SOE interests, so is a target for Mr Xi, who wants to see his economic reforms pass through from policy to execution without delays or diversions.

So for Mr Xi, he gets two birds with one stone, and he smoothes the way for his reforms to pass through unimpeded.

But, you might ask, what if no corruption charges are proved against these executives? Pfft - in China, if you are that high up in an SOE, there will be corruption. Fact. And in any case, it is not beyond the investigating officials to “find” evidence as it suits them.

The upper reaches of the Communist Party, and the machinations, politics, scheming and plotting are no different to how they were in the days of the imperial court.

 

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