There have been many stories in the world’s press about the current and future situation for China’s aluminium industry. Several agencies ran with a story from the CEO of the Sanmenxia smelter, quoting him as saying that China will limit aluminium capacity to 22 million tonnes by 2015.

Stories and press releases like that have led foreign-based analysts to conclude that China will become a net importer of primary aluminium by 2015. One well-known USA based analyst predicted 5 million tonnes, then upped his forecast to 7.5mt. He took these pronouncements and press releases literally.

We spoke to some industry insiders about these predictions. Their response was, it won’t happen. China will have more than 30 million tonnes capacity by 2015, according to our sources. (We have the precise list of smelters being built and being planned, but that information is too valuable to publish here.)

According to our sources, the industry is delighted that the world’s press publish stories about capacity limitations and import growth. Their view is that these things only help promote the metal price, which is why the industry is putting these stories out in the first place. So their message to the press agencies and international analysts is, “Keep it up - you are doing a great job on our behalf.” Whether they realize it or not.