Monthly Archives: August 2010
Here is an article from Bloomberg. Beware the sting in the tail. In my opinion, this is nothing more than Chalco trying to grab some high moral ground. Note that this closure of 330,000 tonnes is to be replaced by a new 500kt smelter in Gansu, so their total capacity will actually increase. The last paragraph coyly touches on the new smelter without mentioning it will more than replace the old capacity.
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited plans to shut 330,000 tonnes of obsolete smelting capacity by 2011.
Mr Xiong Weiping chairman of CHALCO said that the Chinese government wants to close down 1 million tonnes of obsolete capacity for the industry by 2011.
The 330,000 tonnes target set by Mr Xiong represents about 8% of Aluminum Corporation’s current capacity. China has ordered more than 2,000 companies including steel and aluminum producers to shut obsolete plants by the end September.
Mr Xiong said that in the past 5 years, China’s aluminum production has developed too fast. In the next 3 years, aluminum demand will increase as the economy grows and aluminum replaces other metals. I expect the 20% to 30% overcapacity will disappear.
He said that the company plans to build new low cost facilities at Liancheng Aluminum Plant in Gansu.
Here is a piece written by the head of UC Rusal, Oleg Deripaska, which appeared recently in the Wall St Journal. I would not call this an unbiased view!
China now boasts by some measures the second-largest economy in the world. Undoubtedly, the country today is the ultimate driver in Asia and is a key player in the global economy. And in coming years it will play an even more significant role. So it is understandably tempting to view the country as an unbendable force of nature, especially when it comes to manufacturing, and especially in heavy industries that depend on the ability to mobilize large amounts of capital and large numbers of workers. Yet this image is deceptive. As my own company has found, China presents opportunities for foreigners to supply it in these areas. The key is to find the right ways to take advantage of those opportunities.
Aluminum is a good example of the complexities of China’s industrial economy. The country’s rapid industrialization and urbanization have sparked a consumption boom in aluminum for various industries. Aluminum is a key component in the cables that deliver the Internet to China’s growing number of Web surfers; an average of 130 kilograms of aluminum go into each of the 13.6 million cars that were sold in China last year; aluminum is employed in countless parts of the 8.5 million new residential units that were sold in China in 2009. Today, China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of primary aluminum, representing about one-third of global production of 37.7 million metric tons and consumption of 34.3 million metric tons in 2009. Yet China’s consumption still is lower than in developed economies, at 10.5 kilograms per capita per year, compared to up to 13.1 kilograms per capita in the developed world. China’s consumption is likely to double as the economy grows.
China may struggle to meet this aluminum demand. That might come as a surprise given its reputation in other industries. For instance, the country’s ability to produce large quantities of steel is making itself felt in lower prices around the world. The same is true in electronics and consumer manufactured goods. Aluminum is a different game, however. For one thing, China struggles to power its aluminum industry. On average it takes some 17.4 megawatt-hours of electricity to produce one metric ton of aluminum (compared to only around 5.7 MWh of electricity to smelt one metric ton of steel). That energy intensity is why the world’s smelters tend to be located in areas that have access to abundant power resources (hydroelectric, natural gas, coal or nuclear). Yet China remains heavily dependent on coal to meet its electricity demand. The coal is neither cost-effective nor environmentally friendly.
Production efficiency of aluminum smelters is another key problem. The average production costs of most Chinese producers are around $2,000-2,100 per metric ton of aluminum, whereas the current aluminum prices stand at around $2,260 per metric ton. If that price falls below $2,000 per metric ton, as much as 80% of China’s aluminum production capacity may become unprofitable. At present time about 25% of aluminum production volume in China is unprofitable. Meanwhile, benefiting from access to cheap hydro-power and as a result of cost-saving initiatives, Rusal can produce at a cost of only $1,653 per metric ton (compared to Alcoa’s almost $1,800 per metric ton and to Chalco’s $2,000 per metric ton, according to research company Brook Hunt).
Given the Chinese government’s desire to improve economic efficiency more broadly, and its aim to address environmental concerns, China could eventually put offline all of its least efficient aluminum production, freeing up energy and diverting it to other important state projects and urban consumers. As that happens, many local consumers will have to look abroad for aluminum. This represents great opportunities for global producers. Chinese companies are already struggling to secure a stable supply from domestic producers, and the world’s major industry players are competing for their share of this very lucrative market.
The key will be figuring out how to compete effectively. Rusal stepped into the game relatively recently—just last year—but we already are enjoying a measure of success. Our advantages include a relatively low-cost, renewable and environmentally friendly energy supply and our location only 500 kilometers from the Chinese border—proximity that leads to huge transportation savings. In 2009, China accounted for 6% of our revenue. Our aim is to increase our sales to China by 50% to one-third of total sales in the long term. Meanwhile, we are taking advantage of areas where China does have a competitive advantage in manufacturing. For instance, we have two production facilities in China that supply our Siberian smelters with cathodes that are used in the electrolysis process that separates aluminum from alumina.
China has already demonstrated its strong will to balance the growth speed with quality and efficiency for a healthy national economy. The aluminum industry is but one example of how this might open surprising opportunities for China’s trading partners. In a matter of a decade we will see a completely different China. The question is who is going to be the first to leverage this change.
Sinopec plans to boost the annual production capacity of its subsidiary Yangzi Petrochemical located in Nanjing, Jiangsu province of east China, by 56 percent to 12.50 million metric tonnes, said its parent Sinopec Group.
Sinopec Group also said it will expand Yangzi Refinery’s capacity of processing high-sulfur crude oil to nine million tonnes per year.
Meanwhile, Yangzi Petrochemical will newly build a vacuum distillat ion unit with processing capacity of eight million tonnes while scrapping an old 3.5-mln-t/y unit, an 800,000-t/y catalytic cracking unit and a delayed coking unit.
The company will also build a residue hydrotreating unit with an annual capacity of two million tons, and convert a 1-mln-t/y medium pressure hydrogenation unit to a 3.7-mln-t/y diesel hydrofining unit.
Sinopec earlier said the upgrading project, with investment of 7.3 billion yuan, has passed the government’s environmental impact assessment.
Sinopec’s Yangzi Petrochemical is undergoing maintenance for which 15 units have been closed down.
Here is an article from Bloomberg on the same subject as the previous post. We do not agree with the predictions given here, but for the sake of a balanced debate, here is the Sumitomo view.
Global aluminum production may outpace demand this year by more than predicted because of expansion led by China, the biggest supplier and consumer, said Japan’s third-largest trading house.
The company increased its forecast because output in China “appears to be greater than we expected earlier this year”, Motoi Kamitani, Sumitomo Corp’s manager of light metal trading, said in an interview in Tokyo on Aug 20.
Aluminum, used in cars, packaging and homes, has dropped by 7.9 percent in London this year as world supply exceeded demand by 314,000 metric tons, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics on Aug 18. Prices jumped 45 percent in 2009, the first annual advance in three years, as stimulus measures lifted the global economy out of its worst recession since World War II.
Sumitomo predicts a surplus of 2.5 million tons for 2010, up 32 percent from its January estimate of 1.9 million tons and compared with 1.8 million tons in 2009, Kamitani said. Supply may exceed demand by 2.3 million tons next year, he said.
Aluminum production in China may jump 29 percent from last year to 17.4 million tons, or 5.5 percent more than the January estimate, he said. Demand may increase 21 percent to 17.3 million tons, or 4.8 percent more from January, he said.
The country has produced 1.3 million tons to 1.4 million tons a month since the second half of last year as prices advanced, up from 800,000 to 900,000 tons a month in the first half of 2009, he said. “There’s still room for a further increase as the country has an annual capacity of 20 million-22 million tons,” he said.
From 2012, China may turn into a net importer as demand outstrips production and domestic stockpiles drop, Kamitani said.
Auto sales in China, the world’s biggest market, may climb to 16 million this year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Aug 10, boosting its prediction from a previous estimate of 15 million. The State Information Center said in April auto sales may jump 17 percent to 16 million from a record 13.6 million in 2009.
Demand in Japan, Asia’s largest importer, may expand 17 percent to 2 million tons this year from 2009, a level 7 percent above the January estimate, he said. Usage increased in the auto industry after a subsidy program exempted purchases of electric, hybrid, natural gas and some diesel vehicles from taxes. Information technology exports also increased, he said.
Aluminum buyers in Japan may win a cut in fees from major suppliers for October-December as charges for immediate delivery drop to $110 a ton and traders may be forced to sell the metal amid rising costs to maintain stockpiles, Kamitani said.
According to the Chairman of Chalco, aluminum overcapacity will evaporate in the coming three years.
Xiong Weiping says that over the next three years, aluminum demand will increase as the economy grows and aluminum replaces other metals. “I expect the 20-30% overcapacity to disappear,” Xiong said.
China will step up urbanization and will restructure the real estate market, in particular providing more government-subsidized apartments, which will boost aluminum demand, he said in comments widely reported.
This contrasts with the rapid growth of capacity over the next 2 years that we here at AZ China are monitoring. According to our numbers, it will take a rather marked change in consumption patterns for demand to start exceeding supply. But we are not protecting share prices in our comments.
A laugh at Chinalco’s expense, or at least at Caixing’s expense. Caixing posted this article today about the JV with Rio Tinto in Guinea. Guinea is of course in Africa. Read carefully where Chinalco is sending their people to…..
Can you imagine a bunch of Chinese executives walking the streets of Port Moresby, asking for directions to Simandou?
China’s largest producer of metal invited other Chinese partners to the Simandou iron ore venture with Rio Tinto to participate in port and railway construction
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) plans to invite China Railway Construction Group (CRC) and China Communications Construction Group (CCCG) as partners to take part in infrastructure construction for its Simandou iron ore venture with Rio Tinto in New Guinea.
A source from CCCG told Caixin that the current plan is that CRC will be charge of railway construction for the Simandou project, while a port subsidiary of CCCG will construct port facilities.
“We have sent technicians to New Guinea to study (the project) and will submit a plan. The details of the partnership have yet to be decided,” said the source.
On July 29, Chinalco’s listing arm, Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd. (Chalco), signed an agreement with Australian miner Rio Tinto to jointly develop the Simandou iron ore project in New Guinea. Chalco will invest US$ 1.35 billion to hold 47 percent in the venture.
The Simandou iron ore project is located in inland New Guinea, 900 kilometers from the coast. The total reserve of the project is expected to reach 5 billion tons with high quality iron ore accounting for 66 percent to 67 percent of the deposit.
A separate source close to the deal told Caixin that the agreement enabled Chinalco to seek other partners to share its 47 percent stake in the project. “It is possible that Chinalco will eventually hold a 35 to 40 percent stake but remain a controlling stakeholder among Chinese investors. Outside of CRC and CCCG, Chinalco has also contacted other steel companies for possible equity cooperation,” said the source.
A source from CCCG has confirmed with Caixin that CCCG and CRC will very likely hold a stake in the venture, but details are still under negotiation.
“The overall plan on the new partnership and equity arrangement of the Simandou project will be completed and announced in several months,” said the source.
The following story comes from The Peoples Daily, here in China. This is part of a long-term shift from the east to the west, and could have important ramifications for exporters looking to buy from China. This announcement presumably means increased coking capacity in the far west, just at a time when the China aluminium industry is also moving west. Most of the new smelters being built in China are going in the west or south west.
This means that, apart from the Russians, most of us who are looking to buy pet coke from China may find that the inland logistics costs make Chinese coke even more problematic than it already is. Of course there are plenty of railway lines, but they are busy running coal to the East Coast.
In the next 10 years, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will build Xinjiang into China’s largest oil and gas production base, according to Wang Yilin, deputy general manager of CNPC, China’s largest state-owned integrated oil and gas producer.
The region will also serve as and oil and gas reserve base, an important petrochemical base, engineering services support base and an important channel for importing foreign oil and gas resources.
Wang said that CNPC will continue to increase investments and policy support in order to develop the oil and gas production of Xinjiang oil fields to 20 million tons per year, improve the amount of refined oil of Karamay Petrochemical Company to 10 million tons and maintain oil refining and ethylene production in the Dushanzi Petrochemical Company at levels of 10 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively.
The CNPC has accelerated the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in Xinjiang since 2010 and in particular, a number of major projects were launched in July.
On July 14, the CNPC Tarim Large Chemical Fertilizer Project in Korla was completed and put into operation. It utilizes modern chemical fertilizer equipment with the largest land-based single-set production capacity in China and has investments totaling 3 billion yuan.
On July 19, the CNPC Urumqi Petrochemical Company xylene aromatics joint device was completed and tested. It is a 1-million-ton level xylene aromatics joint device, which has the largest single series in the world and investments in it total 3.7 billion yuan.
At the same time, the CNPC South Xinjiang Gasification Project, which officially began construction in Kashgar on July 14, has attracted much attention, and it is expected that in the next two or three years, the pipeline network will cover Kashgar, Hetian and Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, involving 25 county-level cities and 21 ranches.
The Xinjiang region has been occupying an important position in the strategy of the CNPC. In the past 30 years, the CNPC had invested over 300 billion yuan in Xinjiang, creating a production capacity of 18 million tons of crude oil, 23 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 12 million tons of ethylene and 20 million tons of crude oil refining capacity every year.
By the end of 2009, the proven oil deposit and natural gas reserves in Xinjiang stood at 3 billion tons and 1.3 trillion cubic meters, respectively.
News from around the industry.
UC Rusal has announced that they will resume construction of its Boguchany smelter. Phase one, comprising 147,000t, will commence operations in 2013.
Garmco has shelved plans to build a rolling mill in the Sohar precinct, instead focusing on their existing plant in Bahrain.
A consortium of Japanese investors is looking to take a stake in the part-Japanese owned smelter in Indonesia. The Indonesian government has been looking to increase its holding in the operation, prompting the Japanese to increase their own position.
Chalco is said to be about to raise its price for domestic alumina, in light of continued strength in the primary aluminium industry. This is despite imports almost doubling in July, from 140,000t in June, to 270,000t last month. The Chalco price for alumina currently stands at RMB2650. The talk is that the price will rise to RMB2800.
This article comes from Business Day. The article expresses doubts as to whether the Guinean Government will approve and allow the JV partners to proceed with mining the iron ore.
A rebuff by the Guineans would be a major loss of face for Chinalco and indirectly for the Chinese government. The latter would like also mark down the team at Chinalco, not to mention marking down the company itself. According to our information, the last thing that the company can afford is to lose its backing from the Government. We are told that the company is financing its cash losses via secret payments from the Government.
The article is a little long, but worth reading.
China’s metals giant, the Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. (Chalco aka Chinalco), tied another knot for its future mining plans in the Republic of Guinea with London-based Rio Tinto in a signing ceremony in Beijing today. But Guinea’s Mining Minister Mahmoud Thiam told Business Day this will not deter the government in Conakry from revoking Rio Tinto’s mining concessions in Guinea if the company fails to comply with the mining law and its concession obligations.
The latest move focuses the spotlight of the mining world once more on whether the Guinean government — in transition before the second round of the presidential election next month — is capable of cutting the Gordian knot which the internationals have tied around their lucrative mining concessions. United Company Rusal is hoping that its Friguia and Dian-Dian bauxite concessions will not be revoked, as the government and Minister Thiam (image below) have been threatening, also on account of violation of concession agreements and concealment of income from the state.
In the Rusal contest, Chinalco’s aluminium metals group has so far positioned itself on the sidelines, waiting to see if Thiam or his successors in the new Guinean government will have the political will and personal independence to oust Rusal and put up the bauxite rights for fresh international bidding.
This afternoon, Beijing time, the Chinese and UK companies put their signatures to a pact which calls for Chinese funding of about $1.4 billion to develop the Simandou iron-ore deposit, one of the world’s largest, in the southern corner of Guinea, close to the Liberian border. Today’s release by Rio Tinto claims “the binding agreement follows the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Rio Tinto and Chalco’s parent Chinalco announced on 19 March 2010. The agreement covers all aspects of how the JV and project itself will operate and be governed, including planning, construction and management of the mine and associated rail and port infrastructure”.
Chalco, which is the listed subsidiary of the state-owned Chinalco holding, has also been bilateral negotiations with Minister Thiam, in the event that Rio Tinto’s conflict with the government in Conakry ends in the ouster of the company.
Rio Tinto’s CEO, Tom Albanese, issued a statement in Beijing today saying he expects the Simandou joint venture with Chalco to begin production within five years.
Thiam told Business Day the latest sign of Chinese backing for Rio Tinto will make no difference to the government’s process of revocation of the Simandou concessions. Thiam said he was surprised Chalco would suspend share trading for today’s show of support for Rio Tinto’s position in Guinea, because that position is “unlawful”.
The Gordian knot the Chinese and British companies tied today still leaves them vulnerable, since both have refused to respond to a letter sent late last week by the Guinean government demanding a reply to earlier requests for information establishing Rio Tinto’s rights to the concessions. According to a warning letter from the Guinean Government delivered to Chinalco and Rio Tinto on July 23, and released to Business Day, unless Rio Tinto complies with the government’s disclosure requests and meets the concession terms, the joint venture agreement “will have no legal effect with regard to the Republic of Guinea.”
Thiam told Business Day that Chalco has acknowledged receipt of the July 23 letter, but added there will be no reply after it had been translated. Thiam said no reply has been received in Conakry yet.
Rio Tinto had earlier failed to respond to the Guinean government’s first warning letter of June 23, which was signed by Thiam and by the Guinean Minister of Economy and Finance, Kerfalla Yansane. That letter had requested a copy of the protocol of agreement between Rio Tinto and Chinalco, signed last March; details of Rio Tinto’s spending to date on the deposit; and copies of studies Rio Tinto has completed on the two blocs the company retains at the Simandou site.
The follow-up letter of last week is addressed to Chinalco’s chief executive, Xiong Weiping, and to the Chinese Ambassador to Guinea, Huo Zhengde. “As of today,” the letter to the Chinese says, “the majority of the documents [requested] have not been handed over.”
Rio Tinto told Business Day through a spokesman: “We don’t disclose details of confidential communications with governments. Rio Tinto and the IFC are engaging with the Guinean Government on a range of matters and will to continue to do so.”
Chinalco holds a 9% stake in Rio Tinto after failing to get Australian government and shareholder agreement last year for a $19.5 billion bid for a worldwide joint venture; buying rights for the iron-ore Rio Tinto ships from Australia to China; and up to 18% of Rio Tinto’s shares. The relationship with Beijing then deteriorated, when four Rio Tinto employees in China were arrested in July of 2009, and charged with espionage. They were convicted on lesser charges on March 29, this year. By then Rio Tinto and Chinalco had signed their agreement for cooperation in Guinea. According to today’s announcement, Chinalco (through Chalco and other affiliated companies) has agreed to spend $1.35 billion on development work at Simandou, and also on the proposed rail link to port which is required for the project. Through this project spending, Chinalco would earn a 45% stake in the project, with Rio Tinto holding 50%, and 5% held by the International Finance Corporation, a World Bank affiliate.
Rio Tinto’s relations with the Guinea government have deteriorated badly. The London-based Anglo-Australian mining company began exploring Simandou with a permit in 1998; in April 2006 the company said it had received the right to mine, but this was challenged by the Guinean Government in mid-2008. Thiam told Business Day today the agreement was invalid because then President Lansana Conte had not signed it. Conte died in December 2008, and was replaced by a military junta led by Dadis Moussa Camara and Sekouba Konate. They are in the process of ceding power to an elected government; the second round of the presidential election will be held next month, though the date has not yet been fixed. Thiam has been asked by the opposition candidates and the transition government headed by Prime Minister Jean-Marie Dore to continue in his post until a new government and new minister can be appointed.
Rio Tinto’s troubles in Guinea preceded the appointment in January 2009 of Thiam, a US and French trained investment banker. They worsened when Thiam revoked Rio Tinto’s rights to blocs 1 and 2 of Simandou for failure to meet investment and other conditions of its concession agreement. These blocs were then awarded in July of 2009 to Beny Steinmetz Group Resources (BSGR); Steinmetz is an Israeli entrepreneur with diamond and other mining interests in central Africa. In April of this year BSGR announced a joint venture to develop Simandou blocs 1 and 2 with the Brazilian mining giant, Vale.
Rio Tinto claims the loss of blocs 1 and 2 at Simandou is illegal, and has lobbied directly and through the British Government for a change of Guinea government policy. Guinean officials believe that Rio Tinto has withheld data on the extent and value of the reserves it has discovered at Simandou, and tried to slow down the Guinean development while benefitting instead from sales to China from Rio Tinto’s Australian iron-ore mines.
Thiam told Business Day the latest warning should now focus Rio Tinto and Chinalco on the possibility that they will lose blocs 3 and 4. Exploration permits for these may then be reissued at the discretion of the ministry. “We are not at revocation stage yet,” Thiam said. “They do not have a valid convention to mine blocs 3 and 4 since the presidential decree was not signed. They hold an exploration permit and thus will be faced with another retrocession event in early 2011 if they don’t get their act together. If they continue on their arrogant and defiant path, I am certain the next government will simply revoke their permit.”
Separately from Rio Tinto, Chinalco has approached the Guinean government to ask whether it would be eligible for exploration and mining rights in the event Rio Tinto loses them. According to Thiam, “any deal Chinalco makes with Rio Tinto would not give them any rights to Simandou as it would be deemed invalid by the Government of Guinea.” But if Rio Tinto loses its rights, Chinalco would be eligible to bid for the rights, Thiam added.
This story comes from Reuters. A power outage in a potline is never a nice thing, but an outage while you are heating pots, bringing new pots up to speed or trying to settle them down, is a particularly nasty incident.
It doesn’t say anything in the article, but the most concerning thing for me is, if this can happen once, so early in the life of the smelter, what are the chances it will never happen again?
Norsk Hydro said on Tuesday the Qatalum smelter, a 50/50 joint venture between Qatar Petroleum and the Norwegian aluminium company, had suffered a power failure that would delay its ramp-up schedule.
“Qatalum will not be in full production in 2010. It’s too early to tell when we will achieve that, but the delay is for months, not years,” Hydro spokeswoman Inger Sethov told Reuters.
Qatalum, with a design capacity of 585,000 tonnes of primary aluminium, suffered a sudden shutdown of production, due to a power outage on Monday morning, Hydro said.
Shares in Norsk Hydro fell 4.1 percent at 0746 GMT, against a 1.2 percent drop on Oslo’s benchmark index.
“Power was out for almost five hours, leading to a significant drop in temperature in the reduction cells and making it impossible to resume metal production,” Hydro said in a statement.
The failure affected both the connection to Qatar’s national power grid and Qatalum’s own power plant, it said, adding it would investigate the cause of the failure in co-operation with local authorities.
“We had reached 60 percent of the total 585,000 tonnes capacity,” Sethov said.
The facility has 704 production cells, of which 444 were in production and must be restarted. The remaining 260 cells, which had not been put in production, will be phased in as planned by the end of 2010, the company said.
Analyst Eivind Bergkaasa at Arctic Securities said the failure was “a very serious incident in the middle of a ramp-up phase.”
“This will have a negative impact on earnings estimates for 2011, but it’s too early to say how big,” Bergkaasa said.
However, Hans Erik Jacobsen, analyst at First Securities, said he thought the Hydro stock had overreacted to the news.
“Although it’s too early to say anything about the economic consequences, it will not be significant in a Hydro context,” Jacobsen said.
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