Category Archives: Tight Oil
There’s a revolution going on in the North America crude oil market, and it is set to send shock waves all the way to the anode.
But how to keep up with the latest developments? How to sort all the good information from the bad? How to identify how it will affect you?
AZ China is pleased to announce a new comprehensive service that gives you the handle you need on the ongoing saga of Shale Oil and Tight Oil. The Crude Revolution is not just a report, not just a blog, not just a news aggregation service. It is all of those and more.
The Crude Revolution Monitor (available Dec. 20, 2013) starts you off with a complete run-down of the situation regarding developments in Shale Oil and tight Oil generally. What is happening in the oil fields themselves, especially as well life diminishes? How will the pipeline v. rail logistics roll out affect the adoption of shale oil? To what extent have oil refineries already taken up shale oil and tight oil in their blends? How has this affected petcoke volumes and quality? How are the calciners affected, and what are they doing about it? Plus many other subject areas.
That gives you the starting point, but AZ China will give you so much more. Each month, we will send you the latest updates, together with a commentary on the expected developments to come. And we also give you exclusive access to our Crude Revolution blog site, where we will bring you the latest news as it occurs. The blog will also feature opinion pieces from experts in the field.
There is plenty of information out there about shale oil, but AZ China’s Crude Revolution Monitor is the only place to find out how shale oil affects petcoke and the supply of carbon to the world’s aluminium industry. Contact enquiries@az-china.com for more details.
We’re just two weeks away from the online petcoke event of the year. Register today to ensure your payment of just $99 will be received in time. Here’s the link: https://petcokeconference.az-china.com/register.html
It’s going to be a great time of discussion and info sharing!
… in oil imports.
A Financial Times article has illustrated the shift in crude oil and energy dynamics caused by the shale oil phenomenon combined with China’s growing prosperity.
Quoting the energy Information Administration (EIA), the FT points out that China now imports more crude oil than the USA. China now runs at 57% crude oil dependency, with this number growing steadily every year. Meantime, America’s imports are shrinking, thanks to the growth of shale oil production combined with a waning inclination to drive.
From the China side, there is a double-edged sword at work. Their increasing volumes are allowing them to secure improved payment terms, especially from smaller producers, but it puts China at the mercy of the global geo-political diplomacy saga. Where the USA previously acted as the world’s policeman, partly because of its dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil, will China find itself forced to take that role? China has already started deploying peace-keeping forces in various hot-spots, though that has usually been to protect other interests.
For the USA, a retreat from the world crude oil market gives it new freedoms. America’s dealings with Venezuela and other troubled oil countries should get a little easier, given the threat of an oil embargo is reducing.
For the petcoke market, it opens new doors for some, but closes doors for others. The more heavy oil that is introduced into American oil refineries, the more fuel coke will be produced. But the more Eagle Ford and Bakken shale oil that starts to flow through oil refineries that produce anode grade coke, the less coke will be produced. That’s because there is less CCR in the VRO, if you really wanted to know. So anode grade petcoke production is set to fall in the USA. Meantime, China’s increasing thirst for imported oil will start to impact the amount of anode grade coke available for its smelters as well. China has several new cokers coming into the market, but precious little of that coke will be to anode grade quality.
Over the last several years, there has been a “Fall Petcoke Conference” held somewhere around Asia, with the last one being held in Hong Kong last October.
This year, AZ China is offering our own petcoke conference, but this conference is going to be unlike any other you have attended. It will be held online.
The Petcoke Online Forum will be held November 12 - 14, and will be held in the comfort of your own office or home.
We at AZ China believe it is a vital time to get up to date with what is happening in the petcoke world. The recent announcement by Valero in the USA only highlights what is likely to get worse. Anode grade petcoke is about to go short, perhaps critically short. To the situation with Shale Oil and Tight Oil developments in the USA, add the increased use of hydro treating in Chinese oil refineries, and you have a potentially “tectonic” shift in the market balance of anode grade petcoke.
Fuel grade coke prices are also set for a roller coaster ride. China is likely to set import duties on high sulphur petcoke in 2014, but coal prices are set to fall. For as long as the calorific value connection is maintained, that will drive fuel coke prices down.
In the calcined coke world, new calciners are starting to impact the market. Some projects have been delayed or cancelled, but meantime, new capacity in calcined coke, and especially in anode manufacturing capacity.
In short, if ever there was a time to keep ahead of the curve, this is it. AZ China recognises this, and has decided to step into the breach.
To help us arrange this event, we are delighted to announce that Rain CII has agreed to sponsor the Petcoke Online Forum.
So, how does it work? Simple. We will shortly make a registration page available. Register your details and receive your login password. On the day, go to the forum site (we will provide the special link), and join the conversation. Because participants will come from all sorts of time zones, the conversation will be there waiting for you no matter where you log in from. (There’s a small admin fee of $99 with registration.)
Best of all, no need to find extra budget for travel or accommodation costs. No need to find a week out of your busy diary. An online forum will not have the networking opportunities that a physical presence does, but the AZ China Aluminium and Carbon conference in May 2014 will give you that opportunity.
In a separate post, I will give you more information about the line up of speakers and the topics we will cover.
If you don’t want to wait with registering for this important and innovative event, you can write to me at paul.adkins@az-china.com to pre-register. The office is closed this week for China Golden Week, but we will process your registration when the office re-opens.
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