HK: fizzle ending?

The protests in Hong Kong have now entered their 6th day, with numbers down on what we saw in the first few days of the week. And it appears that Beijing’s response is going to be that quintessential Chinese tradition - non-agressive slow burn out.

Anyone who has played the Chinese game of “Go” knows that the way to win is not always about brute aggression. Sometimes it’s best to take a more circuitous route. And anyone who has negotiated with the Chinese knows that patience is a skill that must be consumed in great measure.

And so it seems with Beijing’s response to the protests in Hong Kong. Beijing was never going to back down, and forcing CY Leung would have appeared to be a back-down. Sending in the troops against a group of people who are armed with nothing more than umbrellas would risk drawing all sorts of repercussions. (Not that Beijing cares terribly much what foreign powers might think - after all, Beijing blames foreigners for the troubles in the first place.)

So the best response is not to respond at all. Allow the passion to fizzle out. Let the students go hungry, miss classes, use toilet facilities that must be in terrible condition by now, and sleep on the road. Soon enough the ardour will cool. To help that along, offer them some talks with the local authorities. Talks are good, because they separate the leaders from the throng, and those talks can last for days.

And at the end of the day, it teaches those students a valuable lesson (in Beijing’s eyes): you can protest all you want, but nothing will change.

As for the protestors, they have few if any new options. They can turn violent, but that will risk alienating the world and many of their number, and would bring about uncontrollable reactions that have no bearing on their real agenda. They can continue the present pattern, but interest will eventually wane, and numbers will shrink to a more easily controlled number. Or they can seek a crumb of agreement from talks with authorities - like a modern-day loaves and fishes act, they can may be able to get enough concessions to feed the thousands.

The good thing is that the danger of an armed response appears to have passed. The bad thing is that a week of protesting has achieved not one single meaningful change to the relentless path that Beijing is following.