About 12 months ago in Norway, Paul made several forecasts about the anti-corruption program, the fight against pollution and metal prices. We got just about every one of those forecasts right.
Last year our forecasts for metal prices were for SHFE to range between RMB11700-RMB12000, and LME cash in the range of USD1550 to USD1625. The SHFE active median price was RM12278 and the LME cash was USD1602.
In 2016, we predicted that China’s exports would track in a similar matter to those in 2015. In reality, 2015 China’s total primary, alloy and scrap exports was 512Kt, which was close to 2015’s 567Kt. The semi exports were 4192Kt in 2015 and dropped slightly to 4079Kt in 2016.
Last year, our forecasts for China’s aluminum were for 34 million tons production and 32 million tons demand. The actual 2016 production was 32 million tons. In general, we still believe the supply will exceed the demand in 2017. Approximately 35 million tons of production from the restarts and new capacity in 2017. Our demand prediction increased from last year’s 32 million tons to 33 million tons, driven by the big fixed asset investment for transportation industry.
The point we are trying to make is not just to crow about the accuracy of our forecasts. We understand that forecasts can be wrong. Our point is that we understand the market deeply, which is the only way to confidently build up an argument as to what is likely to happen in future.
If you need thorough insights on what’s happening in China, you need AZ China! Providing insight is our job. Fill the contact form below to get more information on our reports and services or contact steph@az-china.com
Picture reference: https://www.enr.com/articles/40916-forecast-a-weak-recovery-will-gain-strength
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